Predicted scoreLean
Oregon
30.7
Illinois
23.7
Illinois win probability: 33%
Margin (Illinois − Oregon): -7.0 (80% range -28 to 14)
Total: 54.4 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:45 PM | -6.9 | 54.4 | 33% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:50 PM | -7.0 | 54.4 | 33% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:29 PM | -7.0 | 54.4 | 33% |