Predicted scoreLean
Oregon
30.2
Illinois
23.7
Illinois win probability: 34%
Margin (Illinois − Oregon): -6.5 (80% range -28 to 14)
Total: 53.9 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.60% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:45 PM | -6.9 | 54.4 | 33% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:50 PM | -7.0 | 54.4 | 33% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:29 PM | -7.0 | 54.4 | 33% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:04 AM | -7.0 | 54.4 | 33% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:04 PM | -7.0 | 54.3 | 33% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:47 PM | -6.9 | 53.7 | 33% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:46 PM | -7.4 | 56.1 | 32% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:44 PM | -1.2 | 56.9 | 47% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:13 PM | -1.2 | 57.0 | 47% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:27 AM | -0.3 | 57.0 | 49% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:56 PM | -0.3 | 56.9 | 49% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:59 PM | -5.4 | 59.5 | 37% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:43 PM | -8.7 | 58.0 | 29% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:07 PM | -8.3 | 54.7 | 30% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:14 PM | -6.5 | 53.9 | 34% |