2026 Week 8 · Oct 24, 2026, 4:00 AM · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
California @ SMU
Predicted scoreLikely
California
19.5
SMU
34.9
SMU win probability: 83%
Margin (SMU − California): 15.4 (80% range -5 to 36)
Total: 54.3 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.77% |
| 14 | 38 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:50 PM | 15.4 | 54.4 | 83% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:52 PM | 15.4 | 54.3 | 83% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:47 PM | 15.4 | 54.3 | 83% |