2026 Week 8 · Oct 24, 2026, 4:00 AM · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
California @ SMU
Predicted scoreLikely
California
20.1
SMU
36.2
SMU win probability: 84%
Margin (SMU − California): 16.0 (80% range -4 to 38)
Total: 56.3 (80% range 34 to 81)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.84% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.69% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:50 PM | 15.4 | 54.4 | 83% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:52 PM | 15.4 | 54.3 | 83% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:47 PM | 15.4 | 54.3 | 83% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:59 AM | 15.4 | 54.3 | 83% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:59 PM | 15.3 | 54.3 | 83% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:44 PM | 16.7 | 54.2 | 85% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:44 PM | 17.8 | 54.2 | 87% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:38 PM | 17.5 | 53.3 | 86% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:09 PM | 17.4 | 53.3 | 86% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:26 AM | 18.8 | 53.5 | 88% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:00 PM | 18.8 | 53.5 | 88% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:50 PM | 14.1 | 53.6 | 81% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:52 PM | 15.6 | 53.7 | 83% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:21 PM | 13.4 | 54.6 | 80% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:16 PM | 16.0 | 56.3 | 84% |