Predicted scoreLikely
Houston
23.7
Utah
33.6
Utah win probability: 73%
Margin (Utah − Houston): 9.9 (80% range -10 to 31)
Total: 57.3 (80% range 34 to 83)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.59% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:54 PM | 15.1 | 54.6 | 83% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:48 PM | 15.1 | 54.5 | 83% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:40 PM | 15.1 | 54.5 | 83% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:54 AM | 15.1 | 54.5 | 83% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:01 PM | 15.1 | 54.5 | 83% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:41 PM | 14.9 | 54.1 | 83% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:02 PM | 16.4 | 55.6 | 85% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:42 PM | 17.2 | 54.9 | 86% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:16 PM | 17.1 | 55.0 | 86% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:41 AM | 17.3 | 55.0 | 86% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:10 PM | 17.3 | 55.0 | 86% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:54 PM | 16.2 | 56.8 | 85% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:46 PM | 13.6 | 54.7 | 80% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:16 PM | 12.1 | 57.2 | 77% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:00 PM | 9.9 | 57.3 | 73% |