2026 Week 8 · Oct 24, 2026, 4:00 AM · M. M. Roberts Stadium
Louisiana @ Southern Miss
Predicted scoreLean
Louisiana
28.9
Southern Miss
21.6
Southern Miss win probability: 32%
Margin (Southern Miss − Louisiana): -7.3 (80% range -28 to 12)
Total: 50.6 (80% range 28 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:51 PM | -1.3 | 52.6 | 47% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:52 PM | -1.3 | 52.7 | 47% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:55 PM | -1.3 | 52.7 | 47% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:07 AM | -1.3 | 52.7 | 47% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:12 PM | -1.3 | 52.7 | 47% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:05 PM | -1.3 | 52.3 | 47% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:57 PM | -0.9 | 51.8 | 48% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:36 PM | -4.8 | 53.2 | 38% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:24 PM | -4.8 | 53.2 | 38% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:47 AM | -4.6 | 53.2 | 39% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:51 PM | -4.6 | 53.2 | 39% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:05 PM | -6.7 | 48.2 | 33% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:53 PM | -5.9 | 48.4 | 35% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:20 PM | -5.8 | 53.1 | 36% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:07 PM | -7.3 | 50.6 | 32% |