2026 Week 8 · Oct 22, 2026, 11:30 PM · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
East Carolina @ Memphis
Predicted scoreLikely
East Carolina
22.4
Memphis
32.1
Memphis win probability: 72%
Margin (Memphis − East Carolina): 9.7 (80% range -11 to 31)
Total: 54.5 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.61% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:47 PM | 1.9 | 57.6 | 54% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:46 PM | 1.8 | 57.7 | 54% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:25 PM | 1.8 | 57.6 | 54% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:40 AM | 1.9 | 57.6 | 54% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:09 PM | 1.8 | 57.6 | 54% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:00 PM | 1.9 | 57.5 | 54% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:35 PM | 4.0 | 57.6 | 60% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:23 PM | 4.3 | 59.8 | 60% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:03 PM | 4.3 | 59.8 | 60% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:37 AM | 4.4 | 59.7 | 60% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:14 PM | 4.5 | 59.7 | 60% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:14 PM | 3.7 | 56.3 | 59% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:40 PM | 7.6 | 57.5 | 68% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:02 PM | 7.5 | 56.0 | 68% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:13 PM | 9.7 | 54.5 | 72% |