2026 Week 8 · Oct 22, 2026, 11:30 PM · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
East Carolina @ Memphis
Predicted scoreToss-up
East Carolina
27.9
Memphis
29.7
Memphis win probability: 54%
Margin (Memphis − East Carolina): 1.8 (80% range -19 to 23)
Total: 57.6 (80% range 34 to 83)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.58% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.56% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:47 PM | 1.9 | 57.6 | 54% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:46 PM | 1.8 | 57.7 | 54% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:25 PM | 1.8 | 57.6 | 54% |