2026 Week 7 · Oct 17, 2026, 7:30 PM · War Memorial Stadium
Northern Illinois @ Wyoming
Predicted scoreToss-up
Northern Illinois
21.2
Wyoming
24.7
Wyoming win probability: 59%
Margin (Wyoming − Northern Illinois): 3.4 (80% range -16 to 23)
Total: 45.9 (80% range 24 to 69)
Actual: Northern Illinois 23 – Wyoming 41 (margin error 14.6, total error 18.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.84% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.77% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:41 PM | 3.8 | 46.0 | 60% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:44 PM | 3.8 | 46.0 | 60% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:16 PM | 3.8 | 46.0 | 60% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:11 AM | 3.8 | 46.0 | 60% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:56 PM | 3.8 | 46.0 | 60% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:31 PM | 3.7 | 46.1 | 59% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:26 PM | 4.0 | 44.2 | 60% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:19 PM | 5.2 | 44.8 | 63% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:32 PM | 5.1 | 44.8 | 63% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:49 AM | 5.5 | 44.8 | 64% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:47 PM | 5.5 | 44.8 | 64% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:44 PM | 4.2 | 48.5 | 61% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:17 PM | 3.3 | 46.5 | 58% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:33 PM | 3.4 | 45.9 | 59% |