2026 Week 7 · Oct 17, 2026, 4:00 AM · JMA Wireless Dome
Louisville @ Syracuse
Predicted scoreLikely
Louisville
33.1
Syracuse
23.7
Syracuse win probability: 28%
Margin (Syracuse − Louisville): -9.3 (80% range -31 to 11)
Total: 56.8 (80% range 33 to 83)
Actual: Louisville 34 – Syracuse 26 (margin error 1.3, total error 3.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.56% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:37 PM | -9.9 | 51.8 | 27% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:36 PM | -9.9 | 51.8 | 27% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:03 PM | -9.9 | 51.9 | 27% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:58 AM | -9.9 | 51.9 | 27% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:43 PM | -9.9 | 51.8 | 26% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:08 PM | -9.1 | 51.5 | 28% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:05 PM | -13.2 | 53.5 | 20% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:10 PM | -13.0 | 53.9 | 21% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:49 PM | -12.5 | 52.7 | 22% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:03 AM | -12.7 | 52.7 | 22% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:42 PM | -12.7 | 52.7 | 22% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:43 PM | -9.5 | 55.3 | 28% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:27 PM | -9.2 | 57.1 | 29% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:37 PM | -9.3 | 56.8 | 28% |