Predicted scoreLean
Nebraska
21.3
Oregon
29.0
Oregon win probability: 69%
Margin (Oregon − Nebraska): 7.7 (80% range -12 to 28)
Total: 50.3 (80% range 28 to 74)
Actual: Nebraska 14 – Oregon 17 (margin error 4.7, total error 19.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.79% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.75% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:35 PM | 17.4 | 52.0 | 86% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:35 PM | 17.3 | 52.1 | 86% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:47 PM | 18.6 | 52.0 | 88% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:55 AM | 18.6 | 52.0 | 88% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:50 PM | 18.6 | 52.0 | 88% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:02 PM | 18.0 | 51.6 | 88% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:14 PM | 12.3 | 54.4 | 78% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:59 PM | 4.7 | 54.4 | 62% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:40 PM | 4.7 | 54.4 | 62% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:58 AM | 4.9 | 54.5 | 62% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:36 PM | 4.9 | 54.5 | 62% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:29 PM | 7.8 | 55.3 | 69% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:31 PM | 9.8 | 54.8 | 73% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:52 PM | 7.7 | 50.3 | 69% |