2026 Week 7 · Oct 17, 2026, 4:00 AM · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Western Michigan @ Central Michigan
Predicted scoreToss-up
Western Michigan
27.5
Central Michigan
25.0
Central Michigan win probability: 44%
Margin (Central Michigan − Western Michigan): -2.5 (80% range -23 to 18)
Total: 52.4 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: Western Michigan 21 – Central Michigan 14 (margin error 4.5, total error 17.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.64% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:29 PM | -3.3 | 50.7 | 42% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:39 PM | -3.2 | 50.7 | 42% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:08 PM | -3.3 | 50.8 | 42% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:31 AM | -3.3 | 50.8 | 42% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:41 PM | -3.3 | 50.8 | 42% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:26 PM | -3.5 | 50.5 | 41% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:13 PM | -6.0 | 50.2 | 35% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:17 PM | -6.9 | 50.1 | 33% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:35 PM | -6.9 | 50.1 | 33% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:53 AM | -6.5 | 50.1 | 34% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:40 PM | -6.5 | 50.1 | 33% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:30 PM | -2.7 | 51.4 | 43% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:29 PM | -0.8 | 52.2 | 48% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:44 PM | -2.5 | 52.4 | 44% |