Predicted scoreLean
TCU
24.4
Baylor
28.7
Baylor win probability: 60%
Margin (Baylor − TCU): 4.3 (80% range -16 to 25)
Total: 53.1 (80% range 31 to 77)
Actual: TCU 17 – Baylor 6 (margin error 15.3, total error 30.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.75% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.60% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:28 PM | -3.3 | 58.0 | 42% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:41 PM | -3.3 | 58.0 | 42% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:14 PM | -3.3 | 58.0 | 42% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:01 AM | -3.4 | 58.0 | 42% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:48 PM | -3.2 | 58.1 | 42% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:10 PM | -2.5 | 57.4 | 44% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:03 PM | 0.0 | 55.1 | 50% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:03 PM | 1.1 | 54.1 | 53% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:46 PM | 1.1 | 54.2 | 53% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:05 AM | 1.9 | 54.2 | 55% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:44 PM | 1.9 | 54.2 | 55% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:41 PM | 1.8 | 52.9 | 54% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:21 PM | 5.2 | 53.4 | 63% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:35 PM | 4.3 | 53.1 | 60% |