2026 Week 7 · Oct 17, 2026, 4:00 AM · Sun Bowl
San José State @ UTEP
Predicted scoreLean
San José State
25.8
UTEP
18.1
UTEP win probability: 31%
Margin (UTEP − San José State): -7.7 (80% range -27 to 11)
Total: 43.9 (80% range 23 to 66)
Actual: San José State 24 – UTEP 11 (margin error 5.3, total error 8.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.88% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.85% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.83% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.83% |
| 24 | 7 | 0.77% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:40 PM | -1.4 | 47.3 | 46% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:44 PM | -1.4 | 47.3 | 46% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:19 PM | -1.4 | 47.3 | 46% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:13 AM | -1.4 | 47.3 | 46% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:57 PM | -1.4 | 47.3 | 46% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:33 PM | -1.2 | 47.6 | 47% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:29 PM | -8.5 | 45.2 | 29% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:20 PM | -7.6 | 45.3 | 31% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:59 PM | -7.6 | 45.4 | 31% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:18 AM | -7.4 | 45.3 | 31% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:49 PM | -7.4 | 45.3 | 31% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:46 PM | -6.5 | 44.7 | 33% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:16 PM | -9.7 | 43.8 | 26% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:40 PM | -7.7 | 43.9 | 31% |