2026 Week 7 · Oct 17, 2026, 4:00 AM · Sun Bowl
San José State @ UTEP
Predicted scoreToss-up
San José State
24.3
UTEP
22.9
UTEP win probability: 46%
Margin (UTEP − San José State): -1.4 (80% range -21 to 18)
Total: 47.3 (80% range 27 to 70)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 17 | 0.85% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.77% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.72% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:40 PM | -1.4 | 47.3 | 46% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:44 PM | -1.4 | 47.3 | 46% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:19 PM | -1.4 | 47.3 | 46% |