2026 Week 7 · Oct 17, 2026, 4:00 AM · Hard Rock Stadium
Florida State @ Miami
Predicted scoreLikely
Florida State
21.0
Miami
36.5
Miami win probability: 83%
Margin (Miami − Florida State): 15.5 (80% range -4 to 36)
Total: 57.4 (80% range 34 to 83)
Actual: Florida State 35 – Miami 43 (margin error 7.5, total error 20.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 38 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.63% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:33 PM | 13.7 | 54.7 | 80% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:35 PM | 13.7 | 54.7 | 80% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:47 PM | 13.7 | 54.7 | 80% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:54 AM | 13.7 | 54.7 | 80% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:49 PM | 13.8 | 54.7 | 81% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:28 PM | 14.8 | 54.6 | 83% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:23 PM | 17.5 | 55.7 | 86% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:15 PM | 17.8 | 56.0 | 86% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:29 PM | 17.7 | 56.1 | 86% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:12 AM | 18.4 | 56.1 | 87% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:25 PM | 18.4 | 56.1 | 87% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:17 PM | 15.6 | 56.6 | 83% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:34 PM | 13.8 | 57.5 | 80% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:30 PM | 15.5 | 57.4 | 83% |