2026 Week 7 · Oct 17, 2026, 4:00 AM · Bridgeforth Stadium
Georgia State @ James Madison
Predicted scoreLikely
Georgia State
21.1
James Madison
35.4
James Madison win probability: 81%
Margin (James Madison − Georgia State): 14.3 (80% range -7 to 35)
Total: 56.6 (80% range 33 to 82)
Actual: Georgia State 22 – James Madison 49 (margin error 12.7, total error 14.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.61% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.61% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:32 PM | 23.2 | 52.8 | 93% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:40 PM | 23.2 | 52.8 | 93% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:09 PM | 23.2 | 52.8 | 93% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:03 AM | 23.2 | 52.8 | 93% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:45 PM | 23.4 | 52.9 | 93% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:25 PM | 23.6 | 53.0 | 93% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:16 PM | 21.3 | 52.5 | 91% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:13 PM | 17.0 | 52.6 | 86% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:36 PM | 17.0 | 52.7 | 86% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:54 AM | 17.0 | 52.8 | 86% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:32 PM | 16.9 | 52.8 | 86% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:34 PM | 19.2 | 56.4 | 88% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:30 PM | 15.2 | 56.2 | 83% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:54 PM | 14.3 | 56.6 | 81% |