2026 Week 7 · Oct 17, 2026, 4:00 AM · TDECU Stadium
Oklahoma State @ Houston
Predicted scoreLean
Oklahoma State
25.5
Houston
33.7
Houston win probability: 69%
Margin (Houston − Oklahoma State): 8.2 (80% range -13 to 29)
Total: 59.2 (80% range 34 to 85)
Actual: Oklahoma State 32 – Houston 35 (margin error 5.2, total error 7.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.59% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.53% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.53% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:31 PM | 14.1 | 53.8 | 81% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:37 PM | 14.1 | 53.9 | 81% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:01 PM | 14.1 | 53.9 | 81% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:29 AM | 14.1 | 53.9 | 81% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:48 PM | 14.1 | 53.9 | 81% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:17 PM | 14.0 | 54.0 | 81% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:20 PM | 15.7 | 54.0 | 84% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:09 PM | 9.5 | 54.9 | 72% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:44 PM | 9.5 | 54.9 | 72% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:08 AM | 9.8 | 54.9 | 73% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:33 PM | 9.8 | 54.9 | 73% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:27 PM | 6.3 | 58.9 | 65% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:24 PM | 6.7 | 57.3 | 66% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:38 PM | 8.2 | 59.2 | 69% |