2026 Week 7 · Oct 17, 2026, 4:00 AM · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Ball State @ Bowling Green
Predicted scoreLean
Ball State
20.3
Bowling Green
27.4
Bowling Green win probability: 68%
Margin (Bowling Green − Ball State): 7.1 (80% range -13 to 27)
Total: 47.6 (80% range 27 to 71)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.73% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:28 PM | 7.1 | 47.6 | 68% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:39 PM | 7.1 | 47.7 | 68% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:12 PM | 7.1 | 47.6 | 68% |