2026 Week 7 · Oct 17, 2026, 4:00 AM · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Ball State @ Bowling Green
Predicted scoreToss-up
Ball State
23.9
Bowling Green
27.6
Bowling Green win probability: 60%
Margin (Bowling Green − Ball State): 3.7 (80% range -17 to 24)
Total: 51.5 (80% range 29 to 76)
Actual: Ball State 32 – Bowling Green 31 (margin error 4.7, total error 11.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.84% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:28 PM | 7.1 | 47.6 | 68% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:39 PM | 7.1 | 47.7 | 68% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:12 PM | 7.1 | 47.6 | 68% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:32 AM | 7.1 | 47.7 | 67% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:54 PM | 7.1 | 47.7 | 68% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:22 PM | 5.8 | 46.4 | 65% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:56 PM | 6.5 | 48.8 | 66% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:00 PM | 4.0 | 49.2 | 60% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:42 PM | 4.0 | 49.1 | 60% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:59 AM | 4.5 | 49.2 | 61% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:38 PM | 4.5 | 49.2 | 61% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:39 PM | 6.1 | 45.8 | 65% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:22 PM | 4.6 | 49.5 | 62% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:54 PM | 3.7 | 51.5 | 60% |