Predicted scoreLean
Kentucky
17.4
Oklahoma
24.4
Oklahoma win probability: 69%
Margin (Oklahoma − Kentucky): 7.0 (80% range -11 to 25)
Total: 41.9 (80% range 21 to 63)
Actual: Kentucky 21 – Oklahoma 13 (margin error 15.0, total error 7.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 17 | 0.92% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.88% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.85% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.84% |
| 7 | 24 | 0.83% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:34 PM | 9.1 | 42.8 | 73% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:38 PM | 9.1 | 42.8 | 73% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:55 PM | 9.1 | 42.8 | 73% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:25 AM | 9.1 | 42.8 | 73% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:45 PM | 9.1 | 42.8 | 73% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:15 PM | 8.0 | 42.5 | 71% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:57 PM | 11.8 | 41.5 | 79% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:57 PM | 12.8 | 41.7 | 81% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:34 PM | 12.8 | 41.7 | 81% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:09 AM | 12.9 | 41.8 | 81% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:23 PM | 12.9 | 41.8 | 81% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:20 PM | 7.3 | 39.3 | 70% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:36 PM | 7.7 | 40.4 | 70% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:28 PM | 7.0 | 41.9 | 69% |