2026 Week 7 · Oct 17, 2026, 4:00 AM · LaVell Edwards Stadium
Notre Dame @ BYU
Predicted scoreLean
Notre Dame
27.7
BYU
22.4
BYU win probability: 36%
Margin (BYU − Notre Dame): -5.3 (80% range -25 to 14)
Total: 50.2 (80% range 27 to 73)
Actual: Notre Dame 24 – BYU 28 (margin error 9.3, total error 1.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.77% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:29 PM | -6.4 | 50.5 | 34% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:42 PM | -6.4 | 50.4 | 34% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:58 PM | -6.4 | 50.4 | 34% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:09 AM | -6.4 | 50.5 | 34% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:44 PM | -6.4 | 50.4 | 34% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:11 PM | -6.6 | 50.4 | 33% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:01 PM | -7.9 | 53.0 | 31% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:04 PM | -7.5 | 52.7 | 32% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:39 PM | -7.6 | 52.8 | 32% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:57 AM | -7.2 | 52.7 | 32% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:41 PM | -7.3 | 52.7 | 32% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:42 PM | -7.3 | 50.1 | 32% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:26 PM | -5.8 | 49.2 | 35% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:38 PM | -5.3 | 50.2 | 36% |