Predicted scoreLean
Tulsa
29.3
Rice
22.5
Rice win probability: 33%
Margin (Rice − Tulsa): -6.9 (80% range -28 to 14)
Total: 51.8 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: Tulsa 38 – Rice 17 (margin error 14.1, total error 3.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.78% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:36 PM | 0.5 | 53.2 | 51% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:34 PM | 0.6 | 53.2 | 51% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:51 PM | 0.6 | 53.2 | 51% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:06 AM | 0.5 | 53.2 | 51% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:51 PM | 0.5 | 53.2 | 51% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:19 PM | 0.5 | 52.9 | 51% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:11 PM | -1.9 | 51.7 | 45% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:06 PM | -5.2 | 48.7 | 37% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:43 PM | -5.2 | 48.7 | 37% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:08 AM | -4.8 | 48.8 | 38% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:43 PM | -4.8 | 48.8 | 38% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:37 PM | -7.4 | 53.0 | 33% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:32 PM | -7.3 | 52.4 | 33% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:34 PM | -6.9 | 51.8 | 33% |