Predicted scoreLean
Wisconsin
20.4
UCLA
27.2
UCLA win probability: 67%
Margin (UCLA − Wisconsin): 6.8 (80% range -13 to 27)
Total: 47.5 (80% range 27 to 71)
Actual: Wisconsin 7 – UCLA 17 (margin error 3.2, total error 23.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 17 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.75% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.75% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.72% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:39 PM | 0.6 | 47.1 | 51% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:42 PM | 0.6 | 47.1 | 51% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:49 PM | 0.5 | 45.9 | 51% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:06 AM | 0.5 | 45.9 | 51% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:51 PM | 0.5 | 45.8 | 51% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:01 PM | 1.0 | 46.7 | 52% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:24 PM | 5.3 | 48.4 | 63% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:58 PM | 6.5 | 49.4 | 66% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:41 PM | 6.6 | 49.4 | 66% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:58 AM | 6.4 | 49.4 | 66% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:36 PM | 6.4 | 49.4 | 66% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:29 PM | 7.4 | 48.9 | 68% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:23 PM | 5.2 | 48.9 | 63% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:53 PM | 6.8 | 47.5 | 67% |