2026 Week 7 · Oct 14, 2026, 11:30 PM · Plaster Sports Complex
Kennesaw State @ Missouri State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Kennesaw State
25.5
Missouri State
25.3
Missouri State win probability: 50%
Margin (Missouri State − Kennesaw State): -0.2 (80% range -20 to 20)
Total: 50.8 (80% range 28 to 75)
Actual: Kennesaw State 21 – Missouri State 24 (margin error 3.2, total error 5.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 21 | 0.76% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.67% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:41 PM | 2.7 | 52.2 | 56% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:31 PM | 2.7 | 52.2 | 56% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:40 PM | 2.7 | 52.2 | 56% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:16 AM | 2.7 | 52.2 | 56% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:37 PM | 2.7 | 52.2 | 56% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:54 PM | 2.3 | 51.6 | 56% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:50 PM | -1.9 | 47.9 | 45% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:52 PM | 0.0 | 49.0 | 50% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:54 PM | 0.1 | 49.0 | 50% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:51 AM | 0.4 | 49.0 | 51% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:28 PM | 0.4 | 49.0 | 51% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:23 PM | 3.0 | 49.3 | 58% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:15 PM | 1.4 | 49.8 | 54% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:48 PM | -0.2 | 50.8 | 50% |