2026 Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026, 10:00 PM · Reser Stadium
San Diego State @ Oregon State
Predicted scoreLikely
San Diego State
20.2
Oregon State
28.9
Oregon State win probability: 71%
Margin (Oregon State − San Diego State): 8.7 (80% range -11 to 28)
Total: 49.0 (80% range 27 to 72)
Actual: San Diego State 14 – Oregon State 66 (margin error 43.3, total error 31.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.87% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.82% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 14 | 21 | 0.70% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:23 PM | -6.7 | 46.8 | 33% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:30 PM | -6.7 | 46.8 | 33% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:35 PM | -6.7 | 46.8 | 33% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:29 AM | -6.7 | 46.8 | 33% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:31 PM | -6.8 | 46.8 | 33% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:48 PM | -6.0 | 46.6 | 35% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:42 PM | -6.0 | 48.8 | 35% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:27 PM | -0.7 | 46.9 | 48% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:26 PM | -0.7 | 46.9 | 48% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:20 AM | -0.2 | 46.8 | 49% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:19 PM | -0.2 | 46.8 | 49% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:58 PM | 5.9 | 46.4 | 65% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:10 PM | 8.7 | 49.0 | 71% |