2026 Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026, 10:00 PM · Reser Stadium
San Diego State @ Oregon State
Predicted scoreLean
San Diego State
26.8
Oregon State
20.1
Oregon State win probability: 33%
Margin (Oregon State − San Diego State): -6.7 (80% range -26 to 12)
Total: 46.8 (80% range 26 to 69)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.83% |
| 21 | 14 | 0.76% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.72% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:23 PM | -6.7 | 46.8 | 33% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:30 PM | -6.7 | 46.8 | 33% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:35 PM | -6.7 | 46.8 | 33% |