Predicted scoreLean
Tulsa
21.6
Navy
26.0
Navy win probability: 61%
Margin (Navy − Tulsa): 4.4 (80% range -14 to 24)
Total: 47.5 (80% range 26 to 71)
Actual: Tulsa 26 – Navy 34 (margin error 3.6, total error 12.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.87% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.83% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:20 PM | 17.4 | 53.4 | 86% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:30 PM | 17.4 | 53.4 | 86% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:33 PM | 17.4 | 53.3 | 86% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:26 AM | 17.4 | 53.3 | 86% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:30 PM | 17.3 | 53.3 | 86% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:47 PM | 17.4 | 53.3 | 86% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:40 PM | 16.3 | 51.7 | 85% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:27 PM | 10.6 | 51.8 | 75% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:24 PM | 10.6 | 51.8 | 75% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:21 AM | 10.8 | 51.8 | 75% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:53 PM | 10.8 | 51.8 | 75% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:04 PM | 6.5 | 51.2 | 66% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:08 PM | 4.4 | 47.5 | 61% |