Predicted scoreToss-up
Tulane
25.5
Army
26.0
Army win probability: 51%
Margin (Army − Tulane): 0.5 (80% range -19 to 20)
Total: 51.4 (80% range 28 to 76)
Actual: Tulane 17 – Army 20 (margin error 2.5, total error 14.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.77% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:14 PM | -0.4 | 45.6 | 49% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:29 PM | -0.4 | 45.6 | 49% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:32 PM | -0.4 | 45.6 | 49% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:25 AM | -0.4 | 45.6 | 49% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:15 PM | -0.3 | 45.6 | 49% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:44 PM | -0.5 | 45.8 | 48% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:38 PM | 0.6 | 42.1 | 51% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:24 PM | 0.5 | 46.7 | 51% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:58 PM | 0.6 | 46.7 | 52% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:42 AM | 0.7 | 46.6 | 52% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:59 PM | 0.7 | 46.7 | 52% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:12 PM | 0.8 | 47.6 | 52% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:45:56 PM | 0.5 | 51.4 | 51% |