2026 Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026, 4:00 AM · Carter-Finley Stadium
Wake Forest @ NC State
Predicted scoreLean
Wake Forest
30.6
NC State
25.1
NC State win probability: 36%
Margin (NC State − Wake Forest): -5.6 (80% range -26 to 14)
Total: 55.7 (80% range 32 to 80)
Actual: Wake Forest 38 – NC State 14 (margin error 18.4, total error 3.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.67% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.56% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:20 PM | 2.6 | 52.1 | 56% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:27 PM | 2.6 | 52.1 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:19 PM | 2.6 | 52.1 | 57% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:17 AM | 2.6 | 52.1 | 57% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:16 PM | 2.6 | 52.1 | 57% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:22 PM | 2.7 | 52.0 | 57% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:35 PM | -0.0 | 54.9 | 50% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:48 PM | -0.7 | 56.3 | 48% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:10 PM | -0.7 | 56.3 | 48% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:41 AM | -0.4 | 56.3 | 49% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:17 PM | -0.4 | 56.3 | 49% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:08 PM | -3.6 | 54.5 | 41% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:04 PM | -5.6 | 55.7 | 36% |