2026 Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026, 4:00 AM · Acrisure Stadium
North Carolina @ Pittsburgh
Predicted scoreLikely
North Carolina
19.7
Pittsburgh
28.7
Pittsburgh win probability: 72%
Margin (Pittsburgh − North Carolina): 9.1 (80% range -10 to 29)
Total: 48.4 (80% range 27 to 72)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.87% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.76% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 14 | 21 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:23 PM | 9.1 | 48.4 | 72% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:27 PM | 9.1 | 48.4 | 72% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:25 PM | 9.1 | 48.4 | 72% |