2026 Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026, 4:00 AM · Acrisure Stadium
North Carolina @ Pittsburgh
Predicted scoreLikely
North Carolina
20.4
Pittsburgh
30.2
Pittsburgh win probability: 73%
Margin (Pittsburgh − North Carolina): 9.9 (80% range -10 to 30)
Total: 50.6 (80% range 28 to 75)
Actual: North Carolina 21 – Pittsburgh 17 (margin error 13.9, total error 12.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.83% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.74% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:23 PM | 9.1 | 48.4 | 72% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:27 PM | 9.1 | 48.4 | 72% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:25 PM | 9.1 | 48.4 | 72% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:40 AM | 9.1 | 48.4 | 72% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:21 PM | 9.1 | 48.4 | 72% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:42 PM | 9.3 | 48.6 | 72% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:34 PM | 11.2 | 49.9 | 77% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:35 PM | 9.6 | 48.6 | 73% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:10 PM | 9.6 | 48.7 | 73% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:32 AM | 9.9 | 48.7 | 74% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:12 PM | 9.9 | 48.7 | 74% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:06 PM | 11.9 | 49.5 | 78% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:03 PM | 9.9 | 50.6 | 73% |