Predicted scoreLean
Georgia
23.0
Alabama
27.9
Alabama win probability: 62%
Margin (Alabama − Georgia): 4.9 (80% range -15 to 24)
Total: 50.9 (80% range 28 to 75)
Actual: Georgia 20 – Alabama 17 (margin error 7.9, total error 13.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.79% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:13 PM | 2.1 | 51.6 | 55% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:26 PM | 2.2 | 51.7 | 55% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:27 PM | 2.2 | 51.7 | 55% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:32 AM | 2.2 | 51.7 | 55% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:17 PM | 2.2 | 51.7 | 55% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:39 PM | 2.5 | 51.4 | 56% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:16 PM | 4.8 | 50.4 | 62% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:44 PM | 4.5 | 48.3 | 62% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:56 PM | 4.5 | 48.4 | 62% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:36 AM | 4.8 | 48.4 | 62% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:11 PM | 4.8 | 48.4 | 62% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:56 PM | 2.4 | 50.7 | 56% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:12 PM | 4.9 | 50.9 | 62% |