Predicted scoreLikely
Syracuse
21.2
Virginia
30.0
Virginia win probability: 71%
Margin (Virginia − Syracuse): 8.9 (80% range -11 to 28)
Total: 51.2 (80% range 28 to 75)
Actual: Syracuse 25 – Virginia 28 (margin error 5.9, total error 1.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:26 PM | 11.3 | 51.6 | 77% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:23 PM | 11.3 | 51.6 | 77% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:18 PM | 11.4 | 51.6 | 77% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:18 AM | 11.4 | 51.7 | 77% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:16 PM | 11.3 | 51.7 | 77% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:23 PM | 11.3 | 51.9 | 76% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:10 PM | 14.6 | 51.8 | 82% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:43 PM | 14.0 | 49.7 | 82% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:59 PM | 14.0 | 49.7 | 81% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:44 AM | 14.1 | 49.8 | 82% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:57 PM | 14.1 | 49.8 | 82% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:13 PM | 11.6 | 49.9 | 77% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:45:58 PM | 8.9 | 51.2 | 71% |