2026 Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026, 4:00 AM · Boone Pickens Stadium
UCF @ Oklahoma State
Predicted scoreLean
UCF
29.5
Oklahoma State
23.6
Oklahoma State win probability: 36%
Margin (Oklahoma State − UCF): -5.9 (80% range -26 to 14)
Total: 53.1 (80% range 31 to 77)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.62% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:22 PM | -5.9 | 53.2 | 36% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:24 PM | -5.9 | 53.1 | 36% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:15 PM | -5.9 | 53.1 | 36% |