2026 Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026, 4:00 AM · Boone Pickens Stadium
UCF @ Oklahoma State
Predicted scoreToss-up
UCF
25.0
Oklahoma State
27.3
Oklahoma State win probability: 55%
Margin (Oklahoma State − UCF): 2.3 (80% range -18 to 23)
Total: 52.3 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: UCF 28 – Oklahoma State 42 (margin error 11.7, total error 17.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.60% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:22 PM | -5.9 | 53.2 | 36% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:24 PM | -5.9 | 53.1 | 36% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:15 PM | -5.9 | 53.1 | 36% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:20 AM | -5.9 | 53.1 | 36% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:20 PM | -5.9 | 53.1 | 36% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:43 PM | -5.6 | 53.6 | 37% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:15 PM | -6.9 | 53.4 | 34% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:45 PM | -1.8 | 50.9 | 45% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:16 PM | -1.8 | 50.9 | 45% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:38 AM | -1.0 | 51.1 | 47% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:12 PM | -1.0 | 51.1 | 47% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:07 PM | 1.9 | 51.6 | 55% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:03 PM | 2.3 | 52.3 | 55% |