Predicted scoreToss-up
Minnesota
26.3
Purdue
26.4
Purdue win probability: 50%
Margin (Purdue − Minnesota): 0.0 (80% range -21 to 21)
Total: 52.7 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: Minnesota 13 – Purdue 41 (margin error 28.0, total error 1.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.67% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:23 PM | -1.2 | 51.6 | 47% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:21 PM | -1.2 | 51.7 | 47% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:24 PM | -1.2 | 51.6 | 47% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:33 AM | -1.2 | 51.6 | 47% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:24 PM | -1.2 | 51.6 | 47% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:36 PM | -1.7 | 51.3 | 46% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:24 PM | -1.5 | 50.7 | 46% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:22 PM | 1.9 | 54.9 | 55% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:03 PM | 1.9 | 54.9 | 55% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:47 AM | 2.2 | 54.8 | 55% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:54 PM | 2.2 | 54.8 | 55% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:52 PM | -0.3 | 56.4 | 49% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:45:55 PM | 0.0 | 52.7 | 50% |