2026 Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026, 4:00 AM · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Rice @ East Carolina
Predicted scoreLikely
Rice
17.7
East Carolina
33.3
East Carolina win probability: 84%
Margin (East Carolina − Rice): 15.6 (80% range -4 to 35)
Total: 51.0 (80% range 29 to 75)
Actual: Rice 12 – East Carolina 28 (margin error 0.4, total error 11.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.70% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:15 PM | 19.1 | 51.6 | 89% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:21 PM | 19.1 | 51.6 | 89% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:27 PM | 19.1 | 51.6 | 89% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:14 AM | 19.1 | 51.6 | 89% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:26 PM | 19.3 | 51.6 | 89% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:36 PM | 18.0 | 51.4 | 87% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:11 PM | 16.7 | 50.7 | 86% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:23 PM | 16.0 | 48.2 | 85% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:12 PM | 15.3 | 48.3 | 84% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:32 AM | 16.1 | 48.4 | 85% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:08 PM | 16.1 | 48.4 | 85% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:59 PM | 16.7 | 50.8 | 86% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:09 PM | 15.6 | 51.0 | 84% |