Predicted scoreLean
Tennessee
32.0
Arkansas
23.8
Arkansas win probability: 31%
Margin (Arkansas − Tennessee): -8.3 (80% range -28 to 12)
Total: 55.8 (80% range 33 to 81)
Actual: Tennessee 24 – Arkansas 17 (margin error 1.3, total error 14.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.57% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:14 PM | -2.8 | 60.4 | 43% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:25 PM | -2.8 | 60.4 | 43% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:28 PM | -2.8 | 60.3 | 43% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:24 AM | -2.8 | 60.3 | 43% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:17 PM | -2.8 | 60.3 | 43% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:24 PM | -2.6 | 60.3 | 43% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:32 PM | -2.2 | 59.4 | 45% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:22 PM | -9.2 | 58.9 | 29% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:08 PM | -9.2 | 58.9 | 29% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:35 AM | -7.6 | 58.8 | 32% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:09 PM | -7.6 | 58.8 | 32% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:58 PM | -7.8 | 56.3 | 31% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:10 PM | -8.3 | 55.8 | 31% |