Predicted scoreToss-up
Tennessee
31.6
Arkansas
28.8
Arkansas win probability: 43%
Margin (Arkansas − Tennessee): -2.8 (80% range -24 to 18)
Total: 60.3 (80% range 35 to 87)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 31 | 0.64% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.55% |
| 31 | 28 | 0.55% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:14 PM | -2.8 | 60.4 | 43% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:25 PM | -2.8 | 60.4 | 43% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:28 PM | -2.8 | 60.3 | 43% |