2026 Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026, 4:00 AM · Ryan Field
Ball State @ Northwestern
Predicted scoreConfident
Ball State
13.8
Northwestern
34.8
Northwestern win probability: 92%
Margin (Northwestern − Ball State): 21.1 (80% range 1 to 42)
Total: 48.6 (80% range 27 to 72)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 24 | 0.92% |
| 7 | 28 | 0.84% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.79% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.78% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.78% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:21 PM | 21.1 | 48.6 | 92% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:22 PM | 21.0 | 48.6 | 91% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:22 PM | 21.1 | 48.6 | 92% |