2026 Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026, 4:00 AM · Ryan Field
Ball State @ Northwestern
Predicted scoreConfident
Ball State
9.5
Northwestern
43.4
Northwestern win probability: 99%
Margin (Northwestern − Ball State): 33.8 (80% range 14 to 55)
Total: 52.9 (80% range 31 to 76)
Actual: Ball State 14 – Northwestern 45 (margin error 2.8, total error 6.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 38 | 1.07% |
| 7 | 38 | 1.03% |
| 0 | 31 | 0.96% |
| 3 | 38 | 0.90% |
| 0 | 45 | 0.90% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:21 PM | 21.1 | 48.6 | 92% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:22 PM | 21.0 | 48.6 | 91% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:22 PM | 21.1 | 48.6 | 92% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:15 AM | 21.0 | 48.6 | 92% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:22 PM | 21.1 | 48.6 | 92% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:28 PM | 20.6 | 48.3 | 91% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:27 PM | 21.2 | 50.4 | 91% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:40 PM | 22.1 | 49.6 | 93% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:02 PM | 22.2 | 49.6 | 93% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:46 AM | 21.3 | 49.8 | 92% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:55 PM | 22.6 | 50.3 | 93% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:44 PM | 33.0 | 51.8 | 98% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:45:54 PM | 33.8 | 52.9 | 99% |