2026 Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026, 4:00 AM · Mountain America Stadium
Hawai'i @ Arizona State
Predicted scoreConfident
Hawai'i
16.5
Arizona State
33.5
Arizona State win probability: 86%
Margin (Arizona State − Hawai'i): 17.0 (80% range -3 to 38)
Total: 50.0 (80% range 28 to 73)
Actual: Hawai'i 12 – Arizona State 30 (margin error 1.0, total error 8.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 31 | 0.94% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:14 PM | 12.9 | 52.2 | 79% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:21 PM | 12.8 | 52.2 | 79% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:08 PM | 12.8 | 52.2 | 79% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:40 AM | 12.9 | 52.2 | 79% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:19 PM | 12.8 | 52.1 | 79% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:19 PM | 13.8 | 51.9 | 82% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:29 PM | 15.2 | 51.0 | 83% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:21 PM | 18.2 | 50.0 | 88% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:04 PM | 18.2 | 50.1 | 88% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:29 AM | 18.3 | 50.1 | 88% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:06 PM | 18.3 | 50.1 | 88% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:54 PM | 18.2 | 46.9 | 88% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:14 PM | 17.0 | 50.0 | 86% |