2026 Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026, 4:00 AM · Mountain America Stadium
Hawai'i @ Arizona State
Predicted scoreLikely
Hawai'i
19.7
Arizona State
32.5
Arizona State win probability: 79%
Margin (Arizona State − Hawai'i): 12.8 (80% range -7 to 33)
Total: 52.2 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.67% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.66% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:14 PM | 12.9 | 52.2 | 79% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:21 PM | 12.8 | 52.2 | 79% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:08 PM | 12.8 | 52.2 | 79% |