2026 Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026, 4:00 AM · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
Houston @ Kansas State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Houston
26.5
Kansas State
30.4
Kansas State win probability: 59%
Margin (Kansas State − Houston): 3.9 (80% range -17 to 24)
Total: 56.9 (80% range 34 to 83)
Actual: Houston 35 – Kansas State 16 (margin error 22.9, total error 5.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:17 PM | 6.9 | 50.4 | 67% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:24 PM | 6.9 | 50.4 | 67% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:16 PM | 7.0 | 50.4 | 67% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:19 AM | 6.9 | 50.4 | 67% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:20 PM | 7.1 | 50.4 | 67% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:29 PM | 7.1 | 50.7 | 68% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:28 PM | 7.8 | 52.5 | 69% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:41 PM | 10.2 | 51.2 | 74% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:07 PM | 10.1 | 51.2 | 74% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:28 AM | 11.0 | 51.3 | 76% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:13 PM | 11.0 | 51.3 | 76% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:02 PM | 6.8 | 58.1 | 66% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:08 PM | 3.9 | 56.9 | 59% |