2026 Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026, 4:00 AM · Joan C. Edwards Stadium
Coastal Carolina @ Marshall
Predicted scoreToss-up
Coastal Carolina
23.8
Marshall
27.3
Marshall win probability: 59%
Margin (Marshall − Coastal Carolina): 3.5 (80% range -17 to 24)
Total: 51.1 (80% range 28 to 75)
Actual: Coastal Carolina 27 – Marshall 21 (margin error 9.5, total error 3.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.75% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:18 PM | 7.2 | 50.5 | 68% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:28 PM | 7.2 | 50.5 | 68% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:07 PM | 7.1 | 50.4 | 67% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:32 AM | 7.1 | 50.4 | 67% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:29 PM | 7.2 | 50.4 | 68% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:33 PM | 7.0 | 50.3 | 67% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:18 PM | 3.4 | 50.4 | 59% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:50 PM | 1.5 | 50.1 | 54% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:15 PM | 1.5 | 50.1 | 54% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:39 AM | 1.9 | 50.1 | 55% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:16 PM | 1.9 | 50.1 | 55% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:57 PM | 4.5 | 50.4 | 61% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:11 PM | 3.5 | 51.1 | 59% |