Predicted scoreLikely
UAB
21.6
Memphis
36.0
Memphis win probability: 81%
Margin (Memphis − UAB): 14.4 (80% range -7 to 35)
Total: 57.6 (80% range 34 to 83)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 31 | 0.61% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.60% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.58% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:19 PM | 14.4 | 57.6 | 81% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:20 PM | 14.4 | 57.6 | 81% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:30 PM | 14.4 | 57.6 | 81% |