Predicted scoreLikely
UAB
22.1
Memphis
36.7
Memphis win probability: 82%
Margin (Memphis − UAB): 14.6 (80% range -7 to 35)
Total: 58.8 (80% range 34 to 85)
Actual: UAB 13 – Memphis 38 (margin error 10.4, total error 7.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.67% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.62% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.59% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:19 PM | 14.4 | 57.6 | 81% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:20 PM | 14.4 | 57.6 | 81% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:30 PM | 14.4 | 57.6 | 81% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:12 AM | 14.3 | 57.6 | 81% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:24 PM | 14.5 | 57.6 | 81% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:17 PM | 14.4 | 57.5 | 81% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:24 PM | 14.3 | 60.1 | 81% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:38 PM | 12.1 | 60.5 | 77% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:13 PM | 12.2 | 60.9 | 77% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:40 AM | 12.3 | 60.9 | 78% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:09 PM | 12.3 | 60.9 | 78% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:09 PM | 11.3 | 57.9 | 75% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:12 PM | 14.6 | 58.8 | 82% |