2026 Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026, 4:00 AM · Bobby Dodd Stadium
Duke @ Georgia Tech
Predicted scoreToss-up
Duke
30.1
Georgia Tech
26.1
Georgia Tech win probability: 40%
Margin (Georgia Tech − Duke): -4.0 (80% range -24 to 17)
Total: 56.3 (80% range 33 to 82)
Actual: Duke 25 – Georgia Tech 28 (margin error 7.0, total error 3.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:16 PM | 3.3 | 60.1 | 58% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:28 PM | 3.3 | 60.1 | 58% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:17 PM | 3.3 | 60.0 | 58% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:19 AM | 3.2 | 60.1 | 58% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:21 PM | 3.5 | 60.0 | 59% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:44 PM | 3.2 | 58.1 | 58% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:14 PM | 1.6 | 54.0 | 54% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:45 PM | -2.1 | 55.9 | 45% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:01 PM | -2.3 | 56.4 | 45% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:45 AM | -1.5 | 56.4 | 46% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:56 PM | -1.5 | 56.4 | 46% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:15 PM | -5.0 | 55.5 | 38% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:45:54 PM | -4.0 | 56.3 | 40% |