Predicted scoreLean
LSU
23.9
Kentucky
19.0
Kentucky win probability: 37%
Margin (Kentucky − LSU): -4.9 (80% range -24 to 14)
Total: 42.9 (80% range 23 to 65)
Actual: LSU 34 – Kentucky 35 (margin error 5.9, total error 26.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.92% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.88% |
| 17 | 10 | 0.76% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.73% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:17 PM | 0.0 | 43.5 | 50% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:25 PM | 0.0 | 43.5 | 50% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:12 PM | 0.0 | 43.5 | 50% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:23 AM | 0.0 | 43.5 | 50% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:17 PM | 0.2 | 43.5 | 50% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:20 PM | 0.2 | 43.6 | 51% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:31 PM | -6.6 | 42.6 | 33% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:42 PM | -8.1 | 41.1 | 29% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:17 PM | -8.5 | 41.8 | 28% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:30 AM | -8.1 | 41.7 | 29% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:06 PM | -8.1 | 41.7 | 29% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:57 PM | -6.2 | 42.4 | 34% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:11 PM | -4.9 | 42.9 | 37% |