Predicted scoreLikely
UCLA
21.5
Oregon
32.8
Oregon win probability: 76%
Margin (Oregon − UCLA): 11.3 (80% range -10 to 32)
Total: 54.3 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: UCLA 17 – Oregon 15 (margin error 13.3, total error 22.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.76% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.61% |
| 14 | 28 | 0.59% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:22 PM | 23.7 | 53.3 | 94% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:22 PM | 23.7 | 53.3 | 94% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:23 PM | 23.7 | 53.3 | 94% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:37 AM | 23.7 | 53.3 | 94% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:23 PM | 23.9 | 53.3 | 94% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:37 PM | 24.1 | 53.4 | 94% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:25 PM | 19.0 | 53.7 | 89% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:21 PM | 11.4 | 53.5 | 77% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:12 PM | 11.4 | 53.5 | 77% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:39 AM | 12.1 | 53.6 | 78% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:15 PM | 12.1 | 53.6 | 78% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:00 PM | 11.8 | 53.3 | 77% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:07 PM | 11.3 | 54.3 | 76% |