2026 Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026, 4:00 AM · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Sacramento State @ Bowling Green
Predicted scoreConfident
Sacramento State
15.1
Bowling Green
30.9
Bowling Green win probability: 85%
Margin (Bowling Green − Sacramento State): 15.8 (80% range -3 to 35)
Total: 46.0 (80% range 24 to 69)
Actual: Sacramento State 10 – Bowling Green 38 (margin error 12.2, total error 2.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 24 | 0.94% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.90% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.87% |
| 7 | 28 | 0.86% |
| 7 | 21 | 0.83% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:06 PM | -6.8 | 51.5 | 35% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:14 AM | -6.8 | 51.5 | 35% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:26 PM | -6.8 | 51.4 | 35% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:40 PM | -6.9 | 50.8 | 35% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:33 PM | 7.1 | 40.2 | 68% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:49 PM | 12.2 | 48.2 | 79% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:04 PM | 12.3 | 48.2 | 79% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:36 AM | 12.3 | 48.2 | 79% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:07 PM | 12.3 | 48.2 | 79% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:06 PM | 15.4 | 44.9 | 85% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:04 PM | 15.8 | 46.0 | 85% |