2026 Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026, 2:15 AM · LaVell Edwards Stadium
Iowa State @ BYU
Predicted scoreLean
Iowa State
23.5
BYU
28.8
BYU win probability: 63%
Margin (BYU − Iowa State): 5.3 (80% range -14 to 25)
Total: 52.3 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: Iowa State 10 – BYU 24 (margin error 8.7, total error 18.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.67% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:15 PM | 7.6 | 51.1 | 69% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:20 PM | 7.6 | 51.0 | 69% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:04 PM | 7.6 | 51.0 | 69% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:44 AM | 7.6 | 51.1 | 69% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:29 PM | 7.6 | 51.1 | 69% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:16 PM | 7.5 | 50.9 | 68% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:10 PM | 6.9 | 51.5 | 67% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:35 PM | 6.7 | 53.2 | 66% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:18 PM | 6.7 | 53.3 | 66% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:27 AM | 6.9 | 53.2 | 66% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:05 PM | 6.9 | 53.2 | 66% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:51 PM | 2.0 | 52.1 | 55% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:02 PM | 5.3 | 52.3 | 63% |