2026 Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026, 1:00 AM · Husky Stadium
Iowa @ Washington
Predicted scoreToss-up
Iowa
21.7
Washington
19.9
Washington win probability: 45%
Margin (Washington − Iowa): -1.8 (80% range -21 to 17)
Total: 41.6 (80% range 21 to 63)
Actual: Iowa 41 – Washington 24 (margin error 15.2, total error 23.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 17 | 0.95% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.83% |
| 10 | 17 | 0.81% |
| 17 | 10 | 0.79% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.78% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:26 PM | 2.2 | 44.7 | 56% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:20 PM | 2.2 | 44.7 | 56% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:02 PM | 2.2 | 44.7 | 56% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:45 AM | 2.2 | 44.7 | 56% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:15 PM | 2.1 | 44.7 | 56% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:14 PM | 1.0 | 44.9 | 52% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:08 PM | 1.3 | 40.0 | 53% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:34 PM | -0.8 | 39.6 | 48% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:19 PM | -0.9 | 39.6 | 48% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:26 AM | -0.6 | 39.6 | 48% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:05 PM | -0.6 | 39.6 | 48% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:50 PM | -3.5 | 40.3 | 40% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:01 PM | -1.8 | 41.6 | 45% |