2026 Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026, 1:00 AM · CEFCU Stadium
Wyoming @ San José State
Predicted scoreLean
Wyoming
19.8
San José State
25.7
San José State win probability: 65%
Margin (San José State − Wyoming): 5.9 (80% range -14 to 25)
Total: 45.4 (80% range 24 to 68)
Actual: Wyoming 16 – San José State 13 (margin error 8.9, total error 16.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 17 | 0.86% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.79% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.76% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.73% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:24 PM | 1.9 | 47.2 | 55% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:19 PM | 1.9 | 47.2 | 55% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:04 PM | 1.9 | 47.2 | 55% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:46 AM | 1.9 | 47.1 | 55% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:36 PM | 1.8 | 47.1 | 54% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:16 PM | 1.9 | 47.2 | 54% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:09 PM | 8.5 | 46.2 | 71% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:34 PM | 6.5 | 45.0 | 66% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:18 PM | 6.5 | 44.9 | 67% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:26 AM | 6.8 | 45.0 | 67% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:04 PM | 6.8 | 45.1 | 67% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:51 PM | 3.7 | 46.9 | 60% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:01 PM | 5.9 | 45.4 | 65% |