2026 Week 6 · Oct 8, 2026, 11:00 PM · Williams Stadium (VA)
Sam Houston @ Liberty
Predicted scoreLikely
Sam Houston
21.1
Liberty
33.2
Liberty win probability: 78%
Margin (Liberty − Sam Houston): 12.1 (80% range -8 to 32)
Total: 54.3 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Sam Houston 3 – Liberty 35 (margin error 19.9, total error 16.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.77% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:18 PM | 10.8 | 54.5 | 75% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:18 PM | 10.8 | 54.5 | 75% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:59 PM | 10.8 | 54.5 | 75% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:50 AM | 10.7 | 54.5 | 75% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:34 PM | 10.8 | 54.5 | 75% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:11 PM | 10.1 | 54.9 | 74% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:45 PM | 9.6 | 56.5 | 72% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:31 PM | 9.7 | 57.3 | 73% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:22 PM | 11.1 | 57.3 | 75% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:18 AM | 9.7 | 57.2 | 73% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:02 PM | 9.7 | 57.2 | 73% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:47 PM | 11.9 | 55.9 | 77% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:45:59 PM | 12.1 | 54.3 | 78% |