2026 Week 6 · Oct 8, 2026, 11:00 PM · Williams Stadium (VA)
Sam Houston @ Liberty
Predicted scoreLikely
Sam Houston
21.9
Liberty
32.6
Liberty win probability: 75%
Margin (Liberty − Sam Houston): 10.8 (80% range -10 to 31)
Total: 54.5 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.68% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:18 PM | 10.8 | 54.5 | 75% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:18 PM | 10.8 | 54.5 | 75% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:59 PM | 10.8 | 54.5 | 75% |