2026 Week 6 · Oct 7, 2026, 11:00 PM · Fifth Third Stadium
Jacksonville State @ Kennesaw State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Jacksonville State
26.0
Kennesaw State
26.7
Kennesaw State win probability: 51%
Margin (Kennesaw State − Jacksonville State): 0.7 (80% range -19 to 21)
Total: 52.8 (80% range 30 to 77)
Actual: Jacksonville State 27 – Kennesaw State 26 (margin error 1.7, total error 0.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.79% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:17 PM | 0.4 | 52.5 | 51% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:17 PM | 0.4 | 52.6 | 51% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:57 PM | 0.4 | 52.5 | 51% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:51 AM | 0.4 | 52.5 | 51% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:33 PM | 0.6 | 52.5 | 52% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:09 PM | 0.4 | 52.7 | 51% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:36 PM | -0.1 | 52.3 | 50% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:30 PM | -1.6 | 52.3 | 46% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:23 PM | -1.5 | 52.3 | 46% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:22 AM | -0.8 | 52.2 | 48% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:00 PM | -0.8 | 52.2 | 48% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:46 PM | 1.0 | 52.1 | 52% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:45:58 PM | 0.7 | 52.8 | 51% |