2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 11:30 PM · Albertsons Stadium
Utah State @ Boise State
Predicted scoreLean
Utah State
23.7
Boise State
30.2
Boise State win probability: 66%
Margin (Boise State − Utah State): 6.5 (80% range -14 to 27)
Total: 53.9 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.67% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:00 PM | 6.4 | 53.9 | 66% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:16 PM | 6.5 | 53.9 | 66% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:53 PM | 6.5 | 53.9 | 66% |