2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 11:30 PM · Albertsons Stadium
Utah State @ Boise State
Predicted scoreLikely
Utah State
21.3
Boise State
31.9
Boise State win probability: 74%
Margin (Boise State − Utah State): 10.6 (80% range -10 to 31)
Total: 53.2 (80% range 30 to 78)
Actual: Utah State 18 – Boise State 37 (margin error 8.4, total error 1.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.67% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.62% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:00 PM | 6.4 | 53.9 | 66% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:16 PM | 6.5 | 53.9 | 66% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:53 PM | 6.5 | 53.9 | 66% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:07 AM | 6.4 | 53.9 | 66% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:08 PM | 6.4 | 53.9 | 66% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:03 PM | 6.5 | 54.0 | 66% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:01 PM | 6.8 | 54.9 | 66% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:54 PM | 6.4 | 55.1 | 65% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:55 PM | 6.4 | 55.1 | 65% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:02 AM | 6.7 | 55.1 | 66% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:42 PM | 6.6 | 55.1 | 66% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:39 PM | 10.6 | 53.2 | 74% |