2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 7:30 PM · Allegiant Stadium
California @ UNLV
Predicted scoreLean
California
23.1
UNLV
28.5
UNLV win probability: 64%
Margin (UNLV − California): 5.4 (80% range -14 to 25)
Total: 51.6 (80% range 29 to 76)
Actual: California 31 – UNLV 39 (margin error 2.6, total error 18.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.67% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:11 PM | 5.2 | 57.0 | 63% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:16 PM | 5.2 | 57.0 | 63% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:51 PM | 5.2 | 57.0 | 63% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:06 AM | 5.2 | 57.0 | 63% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:07 PM | 5.2 | 57.0 | 63% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:02 PM | 5.0 | 56.6 | 62% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:59 PM | 7.6 | 54.9 | 68% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:56 PM | 3.6 | 52.0 | 59% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:52 PM | 3.6 | 52.0 | 59% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:10 AM | 3.9 | 51.9 | 60% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:53 PM | 3.9 | 51.9 | 60% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:31 PM | 5.4 | 51.6 | 64% |