2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 7:30 PM · Allegiant Stadium
California @ UNLV
Predicted scoreLean
California
25.9
UNLV
31.1
UNLV win probability: 63%
Margin (UNLV − California): 5.2 (80% range -15 to 25)
Total: 57.0 (80% range 34 to 82)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.74% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:11 PM | 5.2 | 57.0 | 63% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:16 PM | 5.2 | 57.0 | 63% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:51 PM | 5.2 | 57.0 | 63% |