2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 7:30 PM · Fargodome
Wyoming @ North Dakota State
Predicted scoreLikely
Wyoming
16.1
North Dakota State
26.8
North Dakota State win probability: 77%
Margin (North Dakota State − Wyoming): 10.8 (80% range -7 to 30)
Total: 42.9 (80% range 23 to 65)
Actual: Wyoming 0 – North Dakota State 28 (margin error 17.2, total error 14.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 24 | 1.00% |
| 10 | 21 | 0.94% |
| 10 | 17 | 0.92% |
| 7 | 24 | 0.91% |
| 7 | 21 | 0.88% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:51 PM | 10.1 | 49.7 | 73% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:05 AM | 10.1 | 49.7 | 73% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:07 PM | 10.1 | 49.7 | 73% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:01 PM | 10.0 | 50.3 | 72% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:00 PM | 24.3 | 36.3 | 97% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:55 PM | 16.8 | 40.5 | 88% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:52 PM | 16.8 | 40.5 | 88% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:12 AM | 17.7 | 40.7 | 89% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:40 PM | 17.7 | 40.7 | 89% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:29 PM | 10.8 | 42.9 | 77% |