Predicted scoreToss-up
Navy
28.1
Air Force
28.4
Air Force win probability: 51%
Margin (Air Force − Navy): 0.3 (80% range -20 to 21)
Total: 56.5 (80% range 33 to 82)
Actual: Navy 9 – Air Force 14 (margin error 4.7, total error 33.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.84% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.66% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.64% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:59 PM | -5.3 | 56.8 | 37% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:15 PM | -5.3 | 56.8 | 37% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:49 PM | -5.3 | 56.8 | 37% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:04 AM | -5.3 | 56.8 | 37% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:07 PM | -5.3 | 56.8 | 37% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM | -6.2 | 56.3 | 35% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:24 PM | -3.8 | 56.2 | 40% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:57 PM | 0.9 | 57.2 | 52% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:51 PM | 0.9 | 57.4 | 52% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:57:55 AM | 1.3 | 57.2 | 53% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:40 PM | 1.3 | 57.2 | 53% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:21 PM | 0.3 | 56.5 | 51% |