2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Dix Stadium
Ohio @ Kent State
Predicted scoreLikely
Ohio
32.7
Kent State
20.0
Kent State win probability: 21%
Margin (Kent State − Ohio): -12.7 (80% range -32 to 7)
Total: 52.7 (80% range 30 to 77)
Actual: Ohio 13 – Kent State 10 (margin error 9.7, total error 29.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.77% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 38 | 17 | 0.67% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:05 PM | -13.5 | 51.8 | 20% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:13 PM | -13.4 | 51.8 | 20% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:43 PM | -13.5 | 51.8 | 20% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:56 AM | -13.5 | 51.8 | 20% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:58 PM | -13.5 | 51.8 | 20% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:50 PM | -13.8 | 51.7 | 19% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:47 PM | -13.4 | 56.8 | 20% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:18 PM | -12.2 | 54.8 | 23% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:42 PM | -13.5 | 55.2 | 20% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:57:50 AM | -13.1 | 55.1 | 21% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:51 PM | -13.1 | 55.1 | 21% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:28 PM | -12.7 | 52.7 | 21% |