2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Dix Stadium
Ohio @ Kent State
Predicted scoreLikely
Ohio
32.6
Kent State
19.2
Kent State win probability: 20%
Margin (Kent State − Ohio): -13.5 (80% range -34 to 7)
Total: 51.8 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.76% |
| 28 | 14 | 0.76% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:05 PM | -13.5 | 51.8 | 20% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:13 PM | -13.4 | 51.8 | 20% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:43 PM | -13.5 | 51.8 | 20% |